Revisions to Climate Change Science

Monthly  The Tropical Lower Troposphere Temperatures graph and the Global Lower Troposphere Temperatures graph are updated semi-monthly.

April 1, 2014  In "Agriculture and Climate Change" added a graph of increasing world wheat, soybean and corn yields.

March 10, 2014  In "IPCC and Model Projections" added graphs of the IPCC's RCP scenarios of CO2 and CH4 concentrations and a graph of the IPCC AR5 short term projections. Added a table showing the projected temperature changes to 2090. Removed some graphs related to the AR4 report.

October 2, 2013 In "Climate Models Fail" added a graph comparing climate model versus observations of sea surface temperautes near the equator.The climate model temperature trend near the equator (5N - 5S) is 3.5 times the measured temperature trend.

September 6, 2013  In "Climate Models Fail" added a graph comparing 73 climate model runs versus weather ballon and satellite observations in the tropical mid-troposphere. Dr. Spencer writes "Now, in what universe do the above results not represent an epic failure for the models?"

July 28, 2013  In "Sun Activity Correlates with Temperature" added a graph of the Koch ice index which describes the amount of ice sighted from Iceland, in the period 1150 to 1983 AD, to the solar cycle length.

July 25, 2013  In "Climate Models Fail" added a graph of ocean heat content by two layers, 0 to 700 m and 700 to 2000 m from Q1 2005. Added a graph of the average temperature of the two layers. "The temperature of the ocean layer 700 to 2000 m has increased by about 0.02 °C from Q1 2005 to Q3 2013."

July 12, 2013  In  "Climate is Always Changing" added two graphs of the Greenland ice core temperature record from the GIPS2 core.

In "Sea Level Rise" added a paragraph on the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core. It shows that 6000 years of temperatures averaging 6 °C above the mean of the past millennium resulted in 400 m decrease in ice sheet thickness which would result in 2 m sea level rise. This implies that climate model projected warming would cause Greenland to contribute just 1.7 cm to sea level rise to 2100.

July 7, 2013 In "Warming is Good for your Health" added commentary by Dr. Benny Peiser. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths would be much more significant (by a factor of 10) than the heat-related deaths due to rising temperatures.

In "Agriculture and Climate Change" added a graph of national corn crop yields versus temperature.

May 24, 2013   In "Cloud Feedback" added a graph of the changes in the surface solar radiation at Potsdam, Germany 1937 to 2010. The amount of solar radiation reaching the surface changes as cloud cover changes.

March 16, 2013  In "Severe Weather" updated graphs of hurricane activity, ACE and frequency, to February 2013. In "Water Vapour Feedback" added a graph showing the sensitivity of a 0.3 prmm change in water vapour on outgoing longwave radiation by atmospheric layer. Added tables showing the change in water vapor and the resulting change in OLR due to changes in waer vapor as measured by NASA satellited from 1990 to 2001.

January 30, 2013 In "Water Vapour Feedback" added graphs showing the precipitable water vapour by layer versus latitude by one degree bands for 1988 and 1991.

January 28, 2013 In "Climate is Always Changing" added a graph showing a 2000-year temperature reconstruction on the northern hemisphere exo-tropics.

January 22, 2013 In "Water Vapour Feedback" added a graph showing the global average precipitable water vapour by atmospheric layer, 1988 to 2001, from the NVAP project. Added a graph of the global monthly average total precipitable water vapour from the NVAP-M project, 1988 to 2009. Also updated several annual time series graphs to include 2012 data.

January 7, 2013 In "Climate Models Fail" added a graph showing that as more CO2 is produced, the fraction of emissions that is sequestered in sinks has increased at 0.94%/decade. Most of the models forecast the sink efficiency will decline so that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will rise by an additional 50 to 100 ppm by 2100 compared to a constant sink efficiency. But the actual sink efficiency change is in the opposite direction of the climate models so it is likely the CO2 content will rise slower that climate model predictions.

November 26, 2012 In "The Greenhouse Gas Effect" added a graph showing the upward radiation spectrum from the top of the atmosphere at 20 km with 300 ppm CO2 and 600 CO2 as calculated by the Modtran radiative code.

October 7, 2012 In "Water Vapour Feedback" added a graph showing a comparison of the total precipitable water vapour column results from the climate models for the IPCC fifth assessment report to the NOAA observations. The graph shows that the models roughly agrees with observation to 1984, then the models significantly over estimates the total water vapour content of the atmosphere.

September 1, 2012 In "Computer Models Fail" added a graph showing results from the 34 climate models that will be used in the IPCC's fifth assessment report. The model mean trend from 1980 to 2010 is three times higher than the satellite observation so the forecasts are useless for making policy decisions.

August 5, 2012 In "Computer Models Fail" added a graph of the sea surface temperature anomaly north and south of 50 degrees latitude. Southern temperatures have declined while northern temperatures have increased.

July 16, 2012 In "Computer Models Fail" added a graph of the diurnal temperature range trend which shows that climate models capture only 20% of the trend during the 20th century. The Tmin represents a very thin layer of 20 to 50 m, and Tmax represents a 1 to 2 km  layer. If models are replicating Tmean but are not capturing the trend in Tmin, then this must mean that the model Tmax is warming faster than the actual Tmax. Most of the warming in climate models is due to increasing water vapour as temperatures rise. The models greatly overestimate the Tmax trend, which represents the deep atmosphere, so they greatly overestimate the increase in water vapour as well.

June 23, 2012 In "Computer Models Fail" added a graph of northern hemisphere sea surface temperature observations vs climate model hindcasts. The actual temperature rise was 4.5 times greater than the modeled trend. Added a graph of global surface temperature trends during the two warming periods of the 20th century. The 3.8 fold increase in forcing has almost no effect on the temperature trends of the two warming periods, indicating that the theory of anthropogenic global warming is seriously flawed.

June 3, 2012 In "Greenhouse Effect", replace the absorption graph with one that shows the spectal intensities of the short wave and long wave radiation. In "Climate is Always Changing" added a graph showing the CO2 and temperature history during the last 500 million years.

May 7, 2012 In "Severe Weather", added a graph of the Palmer drought Index for the USA whichs shows that there has been no trend in either floods or droughts from 1900.

May 5, 2012  In "Sea Level Rise", added a graph of the average monthly sea level of 10 tide gauge stations on the West coast of Canada which have near continuous monthly data from 1973 through 2011. Over the period 1973 to 2011 the average sea level has declined at 0.5 mm/year.

April 29, 2012  In "Sun and Cosmic Rays", added a graph of the near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength 1900 to 2009.

April 22, 2012  In "Sun Activity Correlates with Temperature", added a graph and discussion that shows solar activity in the last of the 20th century was the highest in 8000 years.

March 20, 2012  In "Climate is Always Changing", added a surface temperature graph of the HadCrut3 index for the period 1995 to December 2011. The best fit trend from January 2002 is a decline of 0.092 C/decade.

February 5, 2012  In "Water Vapour Feedback", added 5 graphs concerning declining water vapour specific humidity with increasing CO2 concentration in the air. Also updated the Global Relative Humidity 300 - 700 mb graph and the Specific Humidity 400 mb graph to include 2011 values. The 5 new graphs show: 1, NOAA data of relative humidity near the surface for the period 1960 to 2011 have no trend as expected. 2, monthly specific humidity data at the 400 mbar level versus CO2 with a 13-month filter show declining humidity in the tropics but little trend in the exo-tropics. 3, the global average specific humidity at the 400 mbar level declines with increasing CO2 and diverges from the climate model assumption of constant relative humidity. 4, in the tropics, the specific humidity at the 400 mbar level versus CO2 best fit line has declined by 0.11 g/kg, or 13%, from 1960 to 2011 with a very high 0.71 R-squared factor. 5, specific humidity at 400 mbars versus temperature shows very little correlation with an R-squared factor of only 0.014. Temperature has little effect on the long-term upper atmosphere specific humidity contrary to climate model assumptions. CO2 emissions are causing a decline in upper atmosphere water vapour thereby allowing heat to escape to space.

November 26, 2011  In "Computer Models Fail", added six graphs produced by Bob Tisdale which compares computer model hindcasts to temperature observations. The graphs show that the models do a very poor job of simulating the climate variability of the North Atlantic. The models produce too much warming in the tropics and do not match the frequency, magnitude, and trend of ENSO events. The models hindcast far too much warming in the southern and tropical regions. The Eastern Pacific tropical sea surface temperature has declined at the equator from 1982 at 0.14 C/decade, but the models show a strong warming of 0.19 C/decade.

November 13, 2011  In "Sun Activity Correlates with Temperature", added  a discussion of a paper that compares the historical aurora records  to the surface temperature, planetary and solar records. The abstract states "In particular, a quasi-60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied ... The existence of a natural 60-year cyclical modulation of the global surface temperature induced by astronomical mechanisms, by alone, would imply that at least 60 to 70% of the warming observed since 1970 has been naturally induced. Moreover, the climate may stay approximately stable during the next decades because the 60-year cycle has entered in its cooling phase."

November 6, 2011  In "Sea Level Rise", added a graph of global sea level from the Envisat satellite. Launched in 2002, Envisat is the largest Earth Observation spacecraft ever built. The data shows there has been no global sea level rise since the end of 2003.

In "CO2 measurements", added a map of CO2 concentrations from the IBUKI satellite. It shows that the highest levels of CO2, and therefore the highest net emission (net of CO2 sinks) is in China and central Africa.

In "Warming Effect on Animals", added a discussion of polar bear population in 1965 and current estimates. The Polar Bear Specialist Group has reported in May 2011 that there was no change in the polar bear population in the most recent four-year period studied. The polar bear population is apparently more than double that of the 1960s.

September 22, 2011 In "Sea Level Rise", updated graphs of global, Pacific and Atlantic ocean sea level rise. The global rate of sea level rise since January 2004 is half of that from 1993 to December 2003.

September 17, 2011  In "Sun and Cosmic Rays", added a graph from a paper by Dr. Rao that shows the long term changes in cosmic ray intensity and the near-earth heliomagnetic field.

September 4, 2011  In "Sun and Cosmic Rays", added a graph and discussion of CERN's CLOUD experiment which confirms that cosmic rays  strongly enhance the formation rate of aerosols by up to ten fold. Also added discussion and a graph from a study by Dr. Svensmark which shows that decreases of cosmic rays during Forbush decreases result in a decrease of aerosol and a decrease of the cloud water content by up to 7% about 9 days after the Forbush minimum.

August 28, 2011 In "Climate Models", added a graph which compares the Levitus observations of ocean warming trends 1955 - 1999 versus depth to the model runs of 15 IPCC climate models. The climate model runs show wildly different behaviour and none come close to matching the observations.

July 21, 2011  In "Aerosols" , added a chart showing SO2 and soot emissions in China. China's SO2 emissions have declined 14.5% from 2006 to 2009 according to the 2009 report on the state of the environment in China.

July 14, 2011  In "Aerosols", added a chart showing the decline in global aerosols from 1993. "By 2005, global aerosols had dropped as much as 20 percent from the relatively stable level between 1986 and 1991. ...  Today 75% of all desulphurisation systems are being installed in China. The reduction of aerosols, especially over China, allows more sunlight through the atmosphere to warm the Earth's surface, contributing to global warming."

July 11, 2011  In "Severe Weather", added a graph showing the decline of tornado activity with global warming. "global warming causes FEWER tornado outbreaksnot more." In "Heating of the Troposphere", updated three graphs which show that contrary to climate model projections, the troposphere has been warming at a much lower rate that surface temperatures, and troposphere temperatures have declined since 2002. In "Sea Level Rise", added a map of sea level rise from January 2002 to Aprl 2011 based on the Jason-1 satellite.

July 4, 2011  In "Severe Weather", updated the Accumulated Cyclone Energy graph. Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Added a graph of tropical cyclone frequency. The global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low.

May 21, 2011  In the "Milankovitch Cycles" section, added a graph and discussion of global ice volume rate of change and northern solar insolation over the last 750,000 years. There is a very strong correlation between global ice volume changes and solar insolation. Minor changes in the Summary section concerning water vapour and cloud feedbacks were made.

In the "Water Vapour Feedback" section, added a graph of CO2 and Water vapour's effect on optical depth.

In the "Sun and Cosmic Rays" section, added a discusion of experiments, using a Danish particle accelerator and a cloud chamber, that show increased radiation from cosmic rays leads to more aerosols. Low solar activity increases the cosmic ray flux which increases cloud formation and cools the climate.

May 19, 2011 In the "Water Vapour Feedback" section, added graphs from the NASA Water Vapour Project (NVAP). A graph of global water vapour anomaly from 300 to 500 mbars shows a significant decline.

May 8, 2011  Added a graph which compares ocean heat content to GISS climate model projections 2003 to Q1 2011. Updated the diagram on global energy flows with the graphic from TFK 2009.

April 17, 2011  Added results from a study by R. McKitrick, S. McIntyre and C. Herman, August 2010, that shows that the climate model temperature trends are four time higher than observed in the mid-troposphere for the period 1979 to 2009.

April 29, 2010  In the "CO2 Greatly Increases Plant and Forest Growth" section , added "A 2003 study using 18 years (1982 to 1999) of satellite observations shows that global net primary plant production increased 6% over 18 years. The largest increase was in tropical ecosystems. Amazon rain forests accounted for 42% of the global increase in net primary production."

September 20, 2009  Created an "Aerosol" section. Aerosol are tiny particles that affect climate by reflecting or absorbing sunlight. A significant part of 20th century warming may be due to changes in aerosols, especially in the Arctic. Aerosols resulting from marine micro-organisms and land plant emissions cause a negative feedback to climate change by seeding cloud formation.

August 6, 2009  In the "IPCC and Model Projections" section, added a graph of the IPCC projections of CO2 concentrations in the air to 2100 corresponding to the six emission scenarios. Also added a graph which compares the actual to IPCC projections of CO2 for January 2000 to January 2010. Added a column to the table of the IPCC scenario projections, which shows the maximum projected CO2 growth rate. The CO2 growth rate of the A1FI scenario increases from 0.51%/year in the 2000-2010 decade to 1.20%/year by 2060. The actual annual CO2 growth rate in 2007 and 2008 were both 0.49%.

July 26, 2009  In the "Climate Models Fail" section, added a discussion on falling ocean heat content. Most of the change of the climate system's heat is in the oceans. Data from the ARGO floats network shows the ocean heat content has been declining since 2003, in stark contrast to the projected increasing heat content of climate models.

In "Sea Level Rise" added graphs of global, Pacific ocean and Atlantic ocean sea level rise with trends from January 2004 to March 2009. The global sea level rise since January 2004 of 1.52 mm/year is less than half of the overall trend from 1992 of 3.1 mm/year.

June 19, 2009  In the "Climate Sensitivity" section, added two graphs from a presentation by Dr. Richard Lindzen that compare the outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere as measured by the ERBE satellite to that predicted by climate models in response to changes in sea surface temperatures. The satellite data shows a negative feedback and low climate sensitivity, the opposite of all the climate models which predict a positive feedback.

June 14, 2009   Created a "Cloud Feedback" section. Moved a discussion on high clouds into this section and added a discussion of Dr. Roy Spencer's recent work which shows that low clouds cause a strong negative feedback.

June 13, 2009  In the "An Inconvenient Truth" section, added information on Irena Sendler, who saved 2500 infants and children from the Nazi Warsaw Ghetto during WWII. A candidate for the 2007 Nobel Peace Price, she lost to the IPCC and Al Gore.

June 4, 2009  In the "Water Vapour Feedback" section, add a graph of specific humidity at 400 mb (8 km altitude), which shows specific humidity has declined by 17% since 1948 in the upper troposphere.

May 30, 2009  In the "No Consensus" section, updated the number of scientists who have signed the Global Warming Petition Project from 19,700 to 31,478.

April 4, 2009  In the "Severe Weather" section, added a graph of Northern Hemisphere accumulated cyclone energy 1950 to 2008. Added live graph of the global accumulated cyclone energy. Global hurricane activity has decreased to the lowest level in 30 years.

In "Sea Level Rise" section added graph of the rate of sea level rise from the Proudman Oceanography Laboratory.

In "Urban Heat Island Effects" added a description of the surfacestations.org project and a picture of a poorly sited surface weather station.

March 10, 2009  In the "Water Vapour Feedback" section, added a graph of optical depth changes from 1948 to 2008 calculated by a line-by-line program, utilizing water vapour content from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. It shows the total effective amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has not significantly increased over the last 60 years. 

July 17, 2008  Added the section "Climate Sensitivity".

July 14, 2008  In the "Warnings of Global Cooling" section, added a declaration by the Space and Science Research Center: Global warming has ended -  a new climate era of pronounced cold weather has begun.

In the "Water Vapour Feedback" section, added a paragraph describing the Miskolczi theory. Adding CO2 to the atmosphere just replaces an equivalent amount of water vapour to maintain an almost constant greenhouse effect and has negligible effect on global temperatures.

In "The Science in Summary" section, added a comment about the Miskolczi theory.

July 13, 2008   Added the section "Milankovitch Cycles". Added the section "Water Vapor Feedback". The section "IPCC and Model Projections" was split into two sections. The second part is called "Climate Models Fail".

In the "Warming on Other Planets" section, added comments on Jupiter and Triton global warming.

In the "Urban Heat Island Effects" section, added comments on NASA's GISS urbanization adjustments. NASA applies an urban adjustment in the wrong direction in 45% of the adjustments, making the temperature trends steeper.

In the "Severe Weather" section, added a discussion of a paper by Dr. Indur M. Goklany which shows a decline of death rates from severe weather events.

January 6, 2008  In the "Sun Activity Correlates with Temperature" section, modified the Scafetta & West graph of Sun proxies versus Northern Hemisphere temperatures to include the MSU lower troposphere record from 1979. Using the satellite temperature record eliminates much of the urban heat island effect that contaminates the surface temperature record.

In the "No Consensus" section, added a link and comments about an open letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations titled "UN Climate Conference Taking the World in Entirely the Wrong Direction".

January 1, 2008  In the "Sun Activity Correlates with Temperature" section, added a plot of the level of Lake Victoria and sunspot number with a discussion about the paper "Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development" by WJR Alexander et al, June 2007.

December 31, 2007  In the "Sun Activity Correlates with Temperature" section, updated the discussion on the Scafetta and West solar contribution to climate change to include information from their November 2007 paper.

December 30, 2007  In the "Urban Heat Island Effects" section, added a discussion of a paper by Ross McKitrick and Patrick Michaels published December 2007 concerning the correlations between the surface temperature record and social economic indicators. They conclude that adjustments made to the surface temperature record to correct for the urban heat effects are inadequate, and if the record was fully corrected the surface temperature trend from 1980 to 2002 would be reduced in half. Also added a discussion of the surface versus the troposphere temperature trends, and noted that correcting the surface record would reduce its trend to closely match that of the troposphere record.

In the "IPCC and Model Projections" section, added a discussion of a paper by Douglass et al published December 2007. The paper compared the troposphere temperature trends in the tropics predicted from climate models to actual satellite and radiosonde observations. It concludes that computer model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs.

In "The Science in Summary" section, added "In atmosphere layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed." and "Fully correcting the land temperature record would reduce the warming trend from 1980 to 2002 in half."

In the "CO2 - Temperature Correlation" section, added a statement that the Sun may have caused 10 to 20% of the increase in CO2 during the last century.

December 26, 2007    In the "Introduction" section, added the Global Lower Troposphere Temperatures graph.

In the "Sun Activity Correlates with Temperature" section, added a comment that if one corrects the Scafetta and West analysis to use the uncontaminated satellite data, it shows that the Sun has contributed at least 75% of the global warming of the last century.

November 11, 2007   In the "IPCC and Model Projections" section, added a discussion of the Earthshine project, which shows that the climate forcing of changing albedo is much greater than that due to 20th century CO2 increases.

November 10, 2007   In the "IPCC Hockey Stick" section, added "The IPCC argues that there was little natural climate change over the last 1000 years, so that the temperature change over the last 100 years in unusual and likely caused by human activities." to the first paragraph. Added a discussion of the NRC 2006 Report and the Wegman 2006 Report, and the IPCC's failure to consider the reports' findings in the Fourth Assessment Report.

Added a link to Holland's paper - "Bias and Concealment in the IPCC Process: The 'Hockey Stick' Affair and its Implications".

Shortened a section name to "Sun and Cosmic Rays".

In the "IPCC and Model Projections" section, added "Researchers at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) reported in September 2007 that individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping [high altitude] cirrus clouds .... If computer models incorporated this enhanced cooling effect from high clouds, "it would reduce estimates of future warming by over 75 percent," Spencer said.

In "The Science in Summary" section, added "Real world data shows that high clouds cause a strong negative feedback on climate, but climate models assume that clouds cause a positive feedback."

November 4, 2007     In the "Urban Heat Island Effects" (UHI) section, added a graph and discussion of the UHI effect by Steve McIntyre based on data from a Peterson (2003) study.

In the "An Inconvenient Truth" section, added a link to an article listing 35 errors in AIT by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley.

November 1, 2007    In the "Sun and Cosmic Rays" section, added a graph of troposphere temperature vs. cosmic ray count from Svensmarks rebuttal of the Lockwood paper, with a discussion and link to my critique of the Lockwood paper.  Added H. Svensmark and E. Friis-Christensen names to second paragraph.

October 28, 2007    In the "Heating of the Troposphere" section, replaced the MSU Tropical Temperature graph (from Climate Audit) with graph the Tropical Lower Troposphere Temperatures graph, which is updated monthly.

October 25, 2007    In the "Heating of the Troposphere" section, updated Surface and Troposphere Temperature Trend Tropics graph, added GHCN 2006.

October 14, 2007    In the "Heating of the Troposphere" section, changed This graph shows two analyses The two analyses use different methods to adjust for factors such as orbital decay and inter-satellite differences.

In the "An Inconvenient Truth" section, added a discussion of the British High Court ruling the AIT with a link to 11 inaccuracies.

In the "Heating of the Troposphere" section, added This shows that most of the global temperature change can not be attributed to increasing CO2 concentrations.

In "The Science in Summary" section, added Computer model results presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report shows that if CO2 is the main climate driver, the temperature profile in the atmosphere will show a unique and distinctive pattern - a CO2 fingerprint of global warming. Actual temperature data shows no such CO2 fingerprint. Therefore, the computer model data proves that CO2 is not the main climate driver.

October 5, 2007    Made several typo corrections based on email from Joy Clarke. 
In the "Global Sea Level Rise" section, Any difference between the raw satellite measurement and the tide gauge measurement is assumed at the tide gauge location. Added a discussion of  a study by Wppelmann et al, which used global positioning satellite stations to correct tide gauge data for vertical land movements. Note that this estimate is 58% less than the estimate reported (1993 - 2003) in the IPCC AR4.

September 8, 2007    In the "Global Sea Level Rise" section, added See here for a description of how satellite data is calibrated to the sea level rise of a set of tide gauges.

In the "Sun and Cosmic Rays" section, added the Open Solar Flux plot.

August 30, 2007    Original version published on FOS website