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Testimony of Dr. John Christy - U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology

Technical Rating: star
Climatologist Dr. John Christy discusses the temperature datasets used to study climate and shows that satellite temperature measurements are superior to land based measurements that are contaminated by the effects of urbanization. Comparing the multi-model mean to satellites and weather balloon data, the models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of 3.2 and over-warm the global atmosphere by a factor of 2.5 over the last 37 years. Christy shows that the new NOAA seawater temperature dataset, which added more warming from 1990, now shows more warming than the Hadley Centre HadCRUT4 seawater temperature dataset, both of which show more warming that the air near the sea surface.



Earth’s Top of Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in Climate Models

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Bob Tisdale's analysis of climate models' shows that there is no agreement on the magnitude of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance in the models. There are even wider disagreements in the three calculated components that make up that energy budget, how they evolved in the past, and how they may evolve in the future. This indicates there is little agreement in the modeled processes and physics that contribute to global warming.



Why Models Run Hot: Results from an Irreducibly Simple Climate Model

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An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. The IPCC AR5 report reduced its feedback estimates which requires a reduction in its climate sensitivity estimate from 3.2 to 2.2 C for a doubling of CO2. The authors argue that the net feedbacks are likely to be net-negative, so that the warming from GHG emissions without any policy changes are likely less that 1 C this century.



CEQ Draft Guidance for GHG Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change

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Dr. John Christy gives testimony to the U.S. Committee on Natural Resources about his analysis of the impact of proposed U.S. regulation on climate. He shows comparisons of climate model projection versus satellite and weather balloon observation. Climate models on average over predict global warming by a factor of three, and by a factor of four in the tropics. Dr. Christy shows eliminating all U.S. emissions today would reduce global temperatures by 0.05 to 0.08 Celsius, assuming a climate sensitivity of 1.8 C per doubling of CO2. He says there is evidence that climate sensitivity is less than 1.8 C, which would reduce this estimate further.



When Will Climate Scientists Say They Were Wrong?

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Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist and guest speaker at the 5th Annual Friends of Science Luncheon writes, "year after year, the hole that climate scientists have buried themselves in gets deeper and deeper. The longer that they wait to admit their overheated forecasts were wrong, the more they are going to harm all of science." Referring to a graph prepared by Dr. John Christy, climatologist and guest speaker at the 7th Annual Friends of Science Luncheon, Michaels says there is a "remarkable disconnect between predicted global warming and the real world." John Christy presented the graph to the House Committee on Natural Resources on May 15, 2015.



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