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A Sensitive Matter: How the IPCC Buried Evidence

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The IPCC's recently published report suppressed evidence that the climate is much less sensitive to greenhouse gases than indicated by climate models according to this report by Nicholas Lewis and Marcel Crok. The report says, "In AR5, many studies still use inappropriate data and/or statistical methodology. However, there is now a body of empirical estimates of climate sensitivity, prepared using sound methodology and appropriate data, that give substantially lower values - than climate model simulations." Estimate of the cooling effects of aerosols have been cut, which reduces the estimate of greenhouse gas warming, but this is not included in climate models.



The Canadian Climate Model's Epic Failure

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The Canadian climate model CanESM2 produces one of the most extreme warming projections of all the 30 models evaluated by the IPCC. The model badly fails to match the surface and atmosphere temperature observations, both globally, regionally. The mid-troposphere (400 mbar) global model temperature warming rate (1979 to 2012) is 315% of the weather balloon trend, and 650% of the satellite trend. The mid-troposphere (400 mbar) tropical (20 N to 20 S) model warming rate is 560% of the average of the satellite and balloon observations.



IPCC Models Getting Mushy - McKitrick

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Dr. Ross McKitrick writes in the Financial Post "In the next five years, the global warming paradigm may fall apart if the models prove worthless". The IPCC graph comparing models to observations show the models significantly over-predicted the warming effect of CO2 emissions for the past 22 years. There is even a larger discrepancy in the atmosphere over the tropics. The UN IPPC panel is in full denial mode. They claim there is no discrepancy. McKitrick says, "The IPCC must take everybody for fools."



Climate Models Fail to Match Recent Temperature History

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A team of prominent climatologists finds that the continued global warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 to 2012, is no longer consistent with model projections at 98% certainty. Temperatures in the past have changed up to 24 times faster than the 20th century warming. The modeled warming trend since 1979 in the tropical mid-troposphere is four times greater than measurements.



Climate Models Cannot Explain Lack of Warming

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A new paper by prominent German climatologists finds "that the continued [global] warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 -2012, is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level." The study suggests that the models underestimate natural climate variability, fail to include important forcing such as ocean oscillation and solar amplification, and overestimate sensitivity to greenhouse gases.



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