Policies & Economics
This report by energy economist Robert Lyman shows that it is very difficult to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Environment Canada projects that GHG emissions from the transportation sector will increase slightly from 2012 to 2020. A study by J.D. Power concludes that only 7.3% of passenger vehicles sold worldwide in 2020 will be either hybrid or all-electric vehicles. Increasing public transit would reduce emissions only by a small amount. Eliminating cars and trucks in Canada would reduce emissions by only 77 Mt/yr, only 15% of our 495 Mt reduction target in 2050.
Health groups are misinforming the public on a matter that will directly damage their health. It is appalling that numerous health agencies have jumped on the phase-out coal bandwagon in the advocacy ad which appeared recently in the Edmonton Journal. The ad falsely claims that coal contributes to the deaths of 100 people a year. Coal-fired power plants put out only 0.4 per cent of fine particulate matter in Alberta in 2011 and are largely not responsible for anyone's death, and are far more likely to have aided in the saving of thousands of lives because hospitals need affordable power.
The Minnesota state utility regulators asked an administrative law judge to rule on the social cost of carbon (SCC). Dr. Curry has posted links to some testimony. Dr. Richard Lindzen testified "new evidence (Stevens, 2015) reduces the uncertainty of aerosols so climate sensitivity is now "extremely unlikely to exceed 2 ºC". He estimates it is from 0.85 ºC to 1.5 ºC. Dr. Richard Tol built the FUND integrated assessment model. Table 3 of Tol's testimony Exhibit 2 shows that the SCC using a climate sensitivity of 1 ºC is negative 18 $/tC, ie, quite beneficial.
Anyone familiar with history knows that climate changes throughout time. Global climate model simulations forecast that Anthropogenic (human-caused) Global Warming (AGW) may cause ‘catastrophic’ global warming. Most world governments ratified the United Nation's Kyoto Accord of 1997, hoping to reduce global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the projected catastrophic temperatures that the UN’s Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted have not happened. In fact, there was a natural slow-down and global warming went into hiatus before the Kyoto Accord was ever ratified, despite a rise in CO2 concentration. (now 18 years and 8 months of barely perceptible change) The world has spent $US 2.2 Trillion on renewable energy from 2004 through 2014 trying to reduce emissions, but carbon dioxide concentration has risen. Temperatures have not. That means the hypothesis is unproven and climate models are flawed. They should not be used for setting climate change policy.
This article by Euan Mearns of the website "Energy Matters" presents a graph that shows there is no correlation of the per capita wind + solar installed capacity of the European Union countries in 2014 with the CO2 reduction in each country for the period 2008-2014 (R2 = 0.01). Installing wind and solar devices appears to make no difference to CO2 emissions reduction. Economic growth does correlate strongly with the CO2 reduction in each country for the period 2008-2014 (R2 = 0.42). Countries with negative growth had the most CO2 emission reductions. Vibrant economies need energy to grow and most of that energy still comes from fossil fuels.