Policies & Economics
CANGEA - the Canadian Geothermal Energy Association – has been making a concerted case for the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in Alberta. This report reviews the potential of geothermal in Alberta and explores the differences between geothermal in well-known spots like Iceland and the differences in Canada that make geothermal a less likely power producer for Alberta. The use of deep, old wells for geothermal poses the risk of deadly hydrogen sulfide (H2S) leaks. An evaluation of all costs and risks be undertaken before proceeding down this path.
This reviews the substantial failings of the IPCC in everything from the original premise that human activity producing greenhouse gases was the primary cause of recent warming, to vast errors in climate models that are 500 and 600% off trend. The report includes a compilation of errors, false and wildly exaggerated predictions by the U.N. panel. National economies have been ruined, investment markets distorted, industries devastated, thousands have died prematurely due to sharp rise in power prices as people have been pushed into ‘heat-or-eat’ poverty due to policies based on flawed documents from the IPCC.
The Alberta Government intends to impose a carbon tax of C$20/tCO2 as of January 1, 2017, and C$30/tCO2 as of January 1, 2018. This action is not based on the most recent and best quality climate science and economic evaluations. The expected warming from 2016 to 2100 due to greenhouse gas emissions is only 0.6 °C using the best climate science. The net social benefit of emissions is about 17 US$/tCO2 . This value takes into account the natural recovery from the Little Ice Age and the effects of urban development. A carbon tax will harm all Albertans for no benefit. The climate plan is forecast to reduce global temperatures by 0.00007 °C by 2030.
Energy Economist Robert Lyman does a reality check on the 100% Wind, Water and Sunlight (WWS) by 2050 vision advocated by some politicians and NGOs. He finds that the capital costs of renewable energy plants are almost 30 times as high as those of the natural gas plants. Taking into account operating costs, onshore wind plants are 4.6 times as expensive as gas plants and large-scale PV plants are 14.1 times as expensive as gas plants. The solar PV plants envisioned for the U.S. in the WWS vision would cover almost 20% of the lower 48 states. Canada would have to dedicate our entire national economic output for 6 to 10 years to building wind farms to meet the WWS vision. The cost to install solar PV plants in the USA would be $16 Trillion, not including electrical invertors. The cost of electrifying the passenger and freight rail systems in North America would almost certainly run into trillions of dollars. The WWS vision is not feasible in economic, technological or political terms.
Energy balance analysis using the IPCC forcing estimates with updated aerosol forcing and accounting for millennium scale natural warming and urban heat effects results in a transient climate response (when CO2 concentrations double) of about 0.85 °C in about 125 years. The social cost of carbon best estimate on a global basis is -17 US$/tonne of CO2 and is extremely likely less than -4 US$/tonne of CO2. In Canada, benefits increase throughout the 21st century even with high climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very beneficial. Alberta's proposed carbon tax of $30/tonneCO2 as of January 1, 2018 is not based on the most recent and best quality climate science and economic evaluations. A carbon tax will harm all Albertans for no benefit.