Global warming hysteria is based on climate computer models that don't work. If outgoing radiation from the atmosphere is reduced to less than the incoming radiation from the Sun, heat energy will accumulate in the climate system causing rising temperatures. The models assume CO2 emissions will cause water vapour, the strongest greenhouse gas, to increase in the upper atmosphere, trapping the radiation. They also assume clouds will trap more radiation. But satellite and weather balloon data shows just the opposite of the climate model predictions.
The chart below compares the model predicted change of outgoing radiation to the actual satellite measured change of outgoing radiation, both in response to changing sea surface temperatures.
Satellite Observed vs Predicted Outgoing Radiation
The red lines show the eleven climate models prediction of decreasing outgoing radiation as temperatures rise.
The green line in the middle of the chart shows the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Satellite (ERBE) observed response. It shows that more outgoing radiation escapes to space as temperatures rise, rather than being trapped as the UN computer modellers believe. CO2 emissions do not trap much heat and do not cause significant global warming.
The models predict a distinctive pattern of warming - a hot spot of enhanced warming in the upper troposphere over the tropics, shown as the large red spot in the diagram below. Radiosonde data from weather balloons show no such "hot spot" pattern. If it was there we would have easily detected it.
Model Predicted Warming
Actual Radiosonde Measured Warming
The predicted hot-spot is entirely absent from the observational record. This shows that most of the global temperature change cannot be attributed to increasing CO2 concentrations.
The models fail because they assume both water vapour and clouds strongly increase the CO2 induced temperature changes, whereas recent research shows both water vapour and clouds greatly reduce the temperature changes.
The following graph by Dr. Spencer compares the Levitus observations of ocean warming trends during 1955-1999 to 15 IPCC 4AR climate model runs.
The climate models exhibit wildly different trends, with the deep ocean cooling just as often as warming. The green curve is the Levitus actual observation to a depth of 700 m. Most of the models produce too much warming in the layer to 700 m. Many models produce unexpected ocean cooling below 100 m while the surface warms. None of the models even remotely match the observations.
For more information, see Climate Science >> Climate Models section here.
To learn about water vapour and clouds, see our Climate Change Science Essay click here.
Click HOME to return to the home page.